Ask a small retailer what hurts most about a bad season, and the answer is often the same: a rack full of the wrong sizes. The medium sold out in week two, the extra-large sat untouched, and customers who wanted a small left empty-handed. Style and color matter, but size mix quietly decides whether a purchase turns into profit or into a markdown.
This guide explains how small shops can plan size runs for knitwear and padded jackets without needing sophisticated software.
Why Size Mix Matters More for Outerwear
Outerwear is a high-value purchase, and customers rarely settle for a “close enough” fit. They try it on, check the sleeves, and walk away if it is not right. That makes a broken size run more costly than for cheaper basics.
Layering complicates things too. A customer may want a larger size to wear over a thick sweater, while another wants a close fit. Your size plan has to leave room for both.
Start With Your Own Data
Generic size curves are a starting point, not an answer. Your customers are specific to your area, your style, and your price point.
Gather what you have:
- Last season’s sales by size, for similar garments.
- Returns and exchanges, which show where sizing caused problems.
- Customer requests for sizes you did not stock.
- Local demographics, such as the age and build of your typical shopper.
Even a rough spreadsheet reveals a pattern. Many shops find that two or three central sizes make up the bulk of sales, but the proportion differs from shop to shop.
Build a Simple Size Curve
A size curve is the percentage of a total order allocated to each size. For a first plan, use your data to assign percentages, then adjust.
- List the sizes you offer, from smallest to largest.
- Assign a share to each, based on past sales.
- Check the ends of the range. Do not zero out extreme sizes if you have regular customers who need them.
- Round to workable quantities, since many suppliers sell in packs or minimums.
- Record the plan, so you can compare it with actual sales later.
Treat the first curve as a hypothesis. After a few weeks of selling, you will see where it was right.
Plan Knitwear and Padded Outerwear Differently
Different garments behave differently.
Knitwear
Knit layers are often bought in the customer’s usual size, and they stretch a little, so customers are more flexible about fit. A Cardigans sweater tends to sell across a broad range of sizes, and small shops often carry a deeper stock in the middle sizes while keeping a couple of pieces at each end. Check the supplier’s measurements, since knit sizing varies between makers, and consider writing the garment measurements on the tag.
Padded Outerwear
Padded jackets are more structured, and customers often size up to fit over layers. Shops that build a seasonal outerwear range, particularly those that order in volume through a wholesale puffer jacket program, should think about how the cut fits, whether it runs small or large, and whether customers are likely to layer underneath. Ask the supplier about reorder speed for individual sizes, since being able to replenish the middle sizes quickly can matter more than buying deep on day one.
Order in Stages
Staged buying lowers the risk of a wrong curve.
- Place a first order: covering core sizes with a modest buffer.
- Review sales weekly: noting which sizes sell and which stall.
- Reorder fast movers: where the supplier allows.
- Hold budget in reserve: for unexpected weather or a surprise bestseller.
If a supplier has high minimums, ask whether sizes can be mixed within an order, or whether a smaller test order is possible.
Make Sizing Information Visible
Even the best curve fails if customers cannot find their size. Display garment measurements, include a note on layering, and show a model’s height and size in photos. In-store, arrange sizes in order and keep a stock list so staff can check availability quickly.
Manage Slow Sizes
Some sizes will lag. Decide in advance what to do.
- Group slow sizes: on a single rail so customers can find them.
- Offer them to staff or local groups: at a fair price.
- Hold classic items: for the next year if they are not seasonal fashion.
- Adjust next season’s curve: rather than repeating the same mistake.
Review After the Season
Record what happened: which sizes sold out, when, and how many returns or exchanges occurred. Compare the actual curve with your plan and note differences. After two or three seasons, you will have a size model tailored to your customers.
Final Thoughts
Size-run planning is not glamorous, but it quietly shapes profit. Use your own sales data, build a simple curve, treat knitwear and padded jackets differently, order in stages, and review honestly. A shop that has the right sizes at the right time sells more and discounts less.
